Trump’s Colombia Con

Donald Trump is horrible - like embarrassingly horrible - at diplomacy, and America is going to pay a devastating price for his incompetence. But if you read the mainstream media headlines on Sunday night, you probably came away with the impression Trump is a natural statesman, having deftly navigated the first international crisis of his young second term. “After Trump Tariff Threats, Colombia Agrees to Accept Repatriates from the U.S.” read the ABC News headline. “After Forcing Colombia to Back Down, White House Claims America is Respected Again” blared CNN.

The problem is that it wasn’t true. Colombia didn’t “back down”. Trump created a fake crisis that would not have existed but for his bungling. Colombia and the U.S. didn’t reach any new agreement. At the end of the day, the status of the U.S.-Colombia agreement was basically the same as it was at the beginning of the day and during the entirety of the Biden Administration - only more expensive.

But Trump played the media like a fiddle, getting glowing headlines trumpeting his victory over Colombian President Petro, insinuating that America had won a new right to send deported Colombian nationals back to their home country. The media believed that it was a real crisis, and played it like Trump had won a concession. But it wasn’t a crisis. And Trump didn’t win a concession. All he did was damage a key bilateral relationship and give a giant gift-wrapped present to China. The incident should serve as proof of how terrible Trump is as a diplomat, and how dangerous it is to have a media that is so overwhelmed by the ferocious pace of news from the White House that it often ends up parroting Trump’s talking points and White House press releases instead of asking hard questions and getting to the truth.

First, let’s give the mainstream media/White House press office version of the story. According to this version, Colombia was being very mean to the United States and denying us the ability to send back to Colombia their residents who were scheduled for deportation. Trump, the savvy statesman, threatened President Petro with massive tariffs on Colombian coffee if Petro didn’t comply. For a few hours, Petro fought back and floated his own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, but eventually backed down and agreed to Trump’s demands.

But what really happened? Well, first there was no crisis to be solved. President Biden made an agreement with Colombia back in 2022 for the country to accept three flights a week of deportees. Biden was already regularly sending deportation flights to Colombia, as well as Mexico and other countries in Latin America. Most of the flights were managed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) using chartered aircraft made for civilians. However, just to be as fiscally irresponsible as possible, when Trump came into office he decided to send a group of deportees on a much more expensive military plane to Colombia without clearing the change with the Colombian government. Early on Friday, the White House posted a photo of people in shackles being led onto a military aircraft with the caption “deportation flights have begun.” It was a move that was designed to be provocative. President Petro objected, and instead of working it out diplomatically, Trump put on a show of threatening sanctions and tariffs on all Colombian exports, and Colombia threatened reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods. By the end of the day, the U.S. and Colombia were back to the same deal that existed during the Biden administration - except dumber, because Trump reserved the right to use military planes for the flights even though they are vastly more expensive. Had Trump done nothing at all, the US would be better off.

But Trump did do something on Sunday - he created a pretend crisis and then pretended to solve the pretend crisis. And it’s pretty amazing - and very, very worrying - that most of the press fell for it, resulting in headlines like the BBC’s “Colombia Yields on Deportation Flights to Avoid a Trade War” and the Associated Press’ “White House Says Colombia Agrees to Take Deported Migrants After Trump Tariff Showdown.”

But the other thing Trump did Sunday was open a major rift between the U.S. and a very important ally. Colombia is a key partner in the work to prevent the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. That work will undoubtedly be impacted by Trump’s tantrum and Americans’ lives will be in jeopardy. We rely on Colombia to take in millions of Venezuelan migrants to stem the flow of those people to the United States. This fake crisis, along with Trump’s separate boneheaded decision to shutter aid programs for Venezuelan migrants in Colombia, will result in more Venezuelans showing up at the U.S. border.

And of course, our adversaries gloat when Trump pushes nations in their direction. On Sunday, in the middle of the Trump manufactured drama, China posted on social media that Chinese-Colombian relations are currently at a 45-year high. China’s claim that they, not the U.S., are the low drama, stable partner for South American nations - many rich in the critical minerals the U.S. economy needs to succeed - just got more potent this weekend.

The more Trump gets away with this fake drama, the more Trump will create. President Petro is a savvy leader who didn’t let Trump’s stupid, self-aggrandizing theatrics spill into conflict. But somewhere else down the line, Trump won’t be quite as lucky. It’s time for all of us - including the media - to understand what is a real crisis and what isn’t. If we don’t learn this early lesson, then someday one of Trump’s fake crises will turn into a deadly real one.